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Tropical Storm #3 - Information

TS #3

This storm is currently in the Atlantic Ocean and is expected by most computer models to cut across the lower portion of Florida and eventually head into the Gulf Of Mexico. This is unfortunate considering the predicted location will take it directly over the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill location. The winds will probably be from the Southeast blowing toward the coastlines of Lo, Miss, Ala, and Florida.

Hurricane Bill

Hurricane Bill is the next storm that probably will not have much of an effect on the Eastern Coast of Florida, but we should watch it anyway in case the situation over the Gulf Stream changes and the storm starts tracking more to the West. The NHC has already moved the TS Wind Probability zones to the West by 100 miles in the last 24 hours.

Here is the latest prediction from the NHC as of 11:00am Aug 19th, 2009.

Hurricane Season 2009 starts...

Hello everyone.

I will be using some Doppler radar feeds on a regular basis at the bottom of the main site that will be for anyone living in the Volusia County area worried about hurricanes heading our way. If there are no immediate threats, this new section will be solid black (no data). As always I suggest viewing this site, and any for that matter with Mozilla Firefox. IE is great for some things, but it just can't keep up with Firefox's capabilities for displaying JAVA content. There is still some crazy error in Firefox when visiting my site about 2 missing plugins. Don't worry. You have everything you need for this site. Just close the warning box.

Stay tuned....
Brian.

Hanna and Ike...

There has been a lot of concern over the past 2 days about Hanna and Ike. I have been looking at the forecast models and it appears as if Hanna will stay off the coast of Florida by at least 100 miles (eye to land), eventually making landfall somewhere in South Carolina, * and Ike may graze the keys on its way into the gulf (*Edited 9/7/08).

For the Volusia County area, this means we will get some modest rain, medium winds (<50 MPH) and plenty of beach erosion for continued damage to our beaches. Low-lying areas should take flooding precautions. More updates will be posted if the path changes and either storm threatens the Daytona Beach area more than currently predicted.

Fay breaks apart but plenty of rain in our future...

All the news is a-buzz about Fay breaking apart. It almost looks like the eye has enlarged to neary 50 miles wide at this point. Big eyes are better than small ones (...as far as hurricanes go). So, this means the storm is moving at a slow pace and will be affecting our area for at least 2 more days. Winds at my house have never exceeded 20 MPH so far. Stay tuned.

Fay plot guess #2

I have been running the GFSX models again and they differ from what the mainstream media has been saying about the predicted course. Keep in mind, the DWG plot is just a guess based on variables present at the time. This is by no means inteded to alarm you, or to be used for emergency planning. Always consult the experts in this field.

DWG Estimates...TS/Hur Fay

Shown in blue, is the official NOAA plot as of 11:00 PM today (8-16-08) but I think (Red Plot) it will actually swing more to the East as it moves up the state. The GFS 500mb forcast models have been showing the same thing. Winds could go as high as 50 MPH in the local area.

Tropical Storm "Fay" could pose risk to Florida...

Its still to early to say for sure, but if it becomes the next named storm, Fay, could potentially hit Florida. Some models have it skirting the Eastern coast of Florida and some newer models have it following a path much like Hurricane Charlie did in 2004. Stay tuned.

Winter is finally here!!

Time to cool off. It looks like we survived a fairly un-eventful hurricane season. The cool weather is a welcome change from the heat of the summer. I will post freeze events and things of that nature to these message boards but other than that, don't expect much activity in the message board.

Hurricane Dean

Hurricane Dean is on the way. It will probably be going into the Gulf of Mexico and is unlikely to hit Florida if the current models are used. More information about the hurricane will be posted as it gets closer to Florida and the Gulf.

Now for the fun stuff

If you are interested in wagering in the office pool on the landfall...

Betting opens on August 17th at 6:00pm. (E.S.T) (GMT/ZULU - 5hrs)
All Bets must be sent by August 22nd at NOON (E.S.T) (GMT/ZULU - 5hrs)

You get only 1, one dollar pick. Nobody under 18 yrs old may participate.
Name the City and the State/Country you think will be the last official NOAA eye landfall point. Closest to the pin wins!
Send all bets to HurricaneBet@Gmail.com
The message header's sent time/date will be used as your official submission time.

The Point System is as follows...

(Pick the Hit)

75 Points for THE CLOSEST pick for the landfall location. (Enters Finals)

50 Points for SECOND (Next) Closest Pick to the landfall location. (Enters Finals)

(Finals)

1 Point for each hour that passes from the time of your bet until the last official eye landfall happens as estimated by NOAA.

The winner will be decided by who has the most points of the top 2 finalists (Winner takes All)
Ties will be broken by a coin flip.

Shortly after betting closes I will send out the list of all the bets and times they were sent. If multiple people pick the same city, the time of the bet will be the deciding factor as seen in the point system. If you win, it will be your own responsibilty to collect your dollar from all the loosers.

Have fun... and all kidding and gamesmenship aside, think about the folks affected by the storm and remember that someday it could happen here.

Don't be afraid to send money or supplies to the Red Cross, Salvation Army or any other organization that helps with relief efforts to our fellow Earthlings.

Rough Weather in Afternoon returns...

Question: How do you know it is after lunchtime in Daytona?
Answer: Look at the sky

It appears that the afternoon storms are back. Be prepared for heavy rain, lightning and strong winds anytime after 12:00 noon. This is seasonal weather we used to get most of the Summer in the past but due to various weather patterns, we have been gone without.

Is this a look at the crystal ball for the hurricane future? Nobody can be sure. The Bermuda high (Pressure System) is a little further to the North this year so Florida is more exposed to the wrath of hurricanes.

Also Note: I have recently changed the Java Animation on the main page. It now shows the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic Ocean more than the floater did. This is also using a newer "Rainbow" infrared image enhancement system that makes spotting strong storms much easier.

To fix contact with Trancek

Tropical Storm Barry

The storm is closing in on the West coast of Florida and is expected to enter via Cedar Key. The wind in this area should be in low 20's and the rain expected is about 4 inches. Overall this storm is not much of a threat except for minor wind damage and some localized flooding.

07 Hurricane Season

The new season is approaching. Stay tuned.

Groundhog Day Tornado!

What can I say. Every holiday a new tornado. This one is most likely a F2 or greater storm. The path went from Lake County to Volusia County. No lives were lost in Volusia, but many people fell to the tornado in other areas of the state.

Big thanks go out to Larry Mowrey from Local6.com

His coverage of the storm was extremely good and kept everyone informed of the track as it was moving.

Christmas Tornado 2006

Information is still coming in. Most media outlets think that a F2 tonado with winds in the 120 MPH range came in from the West and moved to the East causing major damage to aircraft and facilities at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University then passed East to Sutton Place Apartments. There have been no injuries reported yet.

See the attached image for my estimation of the tornado path of destruction as seen by ground damage.

Tropical Storm Isaac - No danger to coast.

With winds around 60MPH Isaac is moving into the deep North Atlantic. This storm is not expected to hit the Florida coastiline.

Until Next Time.....

Dual Storms out in the Atlantic...

The two storms out in the Atlantic are not expected to hit the coast of the United States. Thanks to the Bermuda high pressure system, we are safe for now.

Tropical Depression SIX (Later to possibly be named Florence)

Tropical Depression #6 is gaining some strength in the Atlantic. It is still pretty far out there and is not a threat to the coast of Florida yet. Stay tuned.

More information here...

Ernesto - the storm that never came to be.

What happened? This storm was little more than a practice session for us. The edge of the "eye" has passed over my house and the winds never broke 4 MPH! I guess it is a good thing that the storm was not damaging. I expected more though.

It looks like I won the bet against Tim. Sorry Tim, better luck next time.

Ernesto Update (Late Monday)

Hello Everyone.

Good news. Ernesto continues to skirt the coast of Cuba and this is tearing itself apart piece by piece. It will re-organize in the Florida Straits but the impact on Florida's East coast is looking to be less than previously thought. I saw Tom Sorrells on the 11:00 PM Local6 Monday night news say that we should expect winds in the 40 MPH range.

The NHC (National Hurricane Center) is saying we can expect up to 10" of rain in the event on Wednesday night thru Thursday. It looks like the storm will be strong in Daytona sometime late Wednesday. Maybe around 11:00 PM.

Brian and Tim's Predictions

Brian Predicts Ernesto: Daytona Area (Fairway Estates) 30 MPH Sustained 50 Max MPH Gust.

Tim Predicts Ernesto: Holly Hill Area (His House) 40 MPH Sustained 62 MPH Max Gust.

New Ernesto Path

From the National Hurricane Center....

Here Comes Ernesto!

This is the forecast for Ernesto.... (From N.O.A.A.)

Update on Tropical Storm Debby (TS # 4)

At 5 a.m. EDT, the Debbie was centered 385 miles west northwest of the southernmost Cape

Verde

or 730 off the African coast, and was moving WNW at 16 mph and expected to continue this direction for possibly the next 24 hours. � Source: NHC

The storm had maximum sustained winds near 45 mph, with slow strengthening forecast for the next 24 hours.

Debbie could become a hurricane in four days, but there are several forecasted possibilities the storm may weaken. It is also generally thought not to be a threat to any coastal areas yet.

Tropical Depression FOUR (Later Named Debby)

Tropical Depression FOUR (Debby) has formed off the coast of Africa. Good news, most computer models don't see much happening with this one. Probably nothing to worry about. Check back in 2 days to see if anything more happens with this system.

NOAA Forecast: For TS/HUR� - Debby

Daytona Weather Guy's Official Blog Site

Welcome to my blog. This is where I will be posting information regarding severe weather and hurricane information. Stay Tuned!